Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis     

K. Arpe  S. A. G. Leroy  F. Wetterhall  V. Khan  S. Hagemann  H. Lahijani 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(1-2):41-60

The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores.  相似文献   

Gravity anomalies,flexure, and deformation of the converging Indian lithosphere in Nepal and Sikkim–Darjeeling Himalayas     

Md. Afroz Ansari  Prosanta K. Khan  Virendra M. Tiwari  Jayashree Banerjee 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(6):1681-1697

Researchers ubiquitously noted that the common processes of partitioning oblique convergence in response to drag from the trench-hanging plate simultaneously produce radial slips, along-strike translation, and extension parallel to the deformation front. Here, we focus on the area between Nepal and Sikkim–Darjeeling Himalayas, and carry out gravity and finite-element stress modeling of the strike-orthogonal converging Indian lithosphere. We delineate the geometries of different layers and their interfaces through gravity modeling. The optimum model parameters along with rheological parameters of different layers are used for finite-element modeling. Finite-element modeling is done with boundary conditions of keeping the upper surface free and rigidly fixing the section of the northern boundary below the Main Himalayan Thrust. We impart on its frontal section an amount of 6 × 10¹² N/m force, equivalent to resistive force of the Himalayan–Tibet system, and analyze the maximum and minimum compressive stress fields evolved in the lithosphere. We testify our observations with earthquake database and other geophysical and geological studies. We note that an increasing flexing of the Indian lithosphere beyond the Main Boundary Thrust becomes maxima between the Main Central Thrust and South Tibetan Detachment in both the areas; however, more steepening of the Moho boundary is identified in the Sikkim–Darjeeling Himalaya. This abrupt change in lithospheric geometry beneath the Greater Himalaya is likely correlated with the sharp elevation changes in the topography. Although the highest seismicity concentration is dominant in this zone, the Lesser and the Tethys Himalayas in Sikkim–Darjeeling area also record relatively fair seismic activity. More compressive stress field in different layers right within the sharp bending zone supports this observation. We thus propose that the sharp bending zone beneath the Greater Himalaya is suffering maximum deformation, and the deformation is continued in the mantle too. We also identify both right-lateral shear and radial vergence slip, which are presumably associated with the general dynamics and kinematics of the Himalaya.  相似文献   

Optimization of sample preparation method of total sulphur measurement in mine tailings     

A. H. Khan  J. Q. Shang  R. Alam 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2014,11(7):1989-1998

A sample preparation method of total sulphur measurement of reactive mine tailings was optimized. The total sulphur was measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy, and ultrasound technique was used for sample digestion. The optimization process was adopted by a combined approach of experimental design and response surface methodology. The digestion time, temperature and acid-oxidant combination (i.e. effect of H₂O₂ with a fixed amount of acid mixture) were investigated. A two-level and three-factor (2³) full factorial design of experiment was applied to identify the most significant factors, and a central composite design was used to optimize the digestion procedure. KZK-1, a sericite schist, was selected as the certified reference material. The optimum methodology at 95 % confidence level (P < 0.05) was identified to be 10 min of digestion at 77 °C, with a solution of 1 ml HNO₃:1 ml HCl:1.35 ml H₂O₂. This combination resulted in 100 % sulphur recovery. The investigated method was verified by X-ray diffraction analysis. The optimum digestion level was applied to a reactive mine tailings, which achieved satisfactory results with a percentage relative standard deviation < 3 %.  相似文献   

Newly discovered mud volcanoes in the Coastal Belt of Makran,Pakistan—tectonic implications   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Akhtar M. Kassi  Shuhab D. Khan  Huseyin Bayraktar  Aimal K. Kasi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(11):4899-4909

The Makran accretionary wedge has a much larger number of mud volcanoes then those reported earlier. Using high-resolution satellite images, over 70 active mud volcanoes were identified. These mud volcanoes occur within a well-defined zone; we call it the Makran zone of active mud volcanoes (MZAMV), which is parallel to the regional trend of the accretionary wedge. Mud volcanoes within the zone occur as clusters, which form linear belts parallel to the regional thrusts associated with anticlines. The MZAMV zone also includes the offshore mud volcanoes occurring in the shallow shelf area, including the recurrently emerging mud islands. Several occurrences of thick deposits of old mud volcanoes (Pleistocene or even older) are also present within this zone, which also display recognizable features that are characteristic of the fossil mud volcanoes. We propose that the MZAMV developed and evolved in response to the continued compression within the Makran accretionary wedge, which in turn, is a response of the subduction process. Mud diapirism has been an ongoing phenomena since Pleistocene or even earlier. The events of enhanced mud extrusion in mud volcanoes and/or emergence of island(s) have relevance with seismic phenomena and, therefore, may be closely monitored.  相似文献   

Shigar valley gemstones,their chemical composition and origin,Skardu, Gilgit-Baltistan,Pakistan     

Muhammad Hassan Agheem  Mohammad Tahir Shah  Tahseenullah Khan  Mamoru Murata  Muhammad Arif  Humaira Dars 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(9):3801-3814

A variety of gemstones is being mined in the Shigar valley, Skardu, Pakistan. These include beryl (goshenite and aquamarine), tourmaline (schorl), garnet (almandine–spessartine), apatite, topaz, fluorite, zoisite, clinozoisite, and axinite, mostly occurring in complex or zoned pegmatites and metamorphic rocks. These have been analyzed using electron probe micro-analyzer and X-ray diffractometer. The mineral chemistry of each gemstone is similar to its respective typical gemstone variety with homogenous chemical composition. Field and chemical characteristics suggest that beryl, tourmaline, garnet, apatite, topaz, and fluorite are occurring in zoned pegmatites which are largely formed by magmatic hydrothermal fluids in the cavities and vugs within the intermediate zone. However, zoisite, clinozoisite, and axinite may have a metamorphic and/or metasomatic origin.  相似文献   

Uranium (U) concentration and its genetic significance in the phosphorites of the Paleoproterozoic Bijawar Group of the Lalitpur district,Uttar Pradesh,India     

Shamim A. Dar  K. F. Khan  Saif A. Khan  Akhtar R. Mir  H. Wani  V. Balaram 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(6):2237-2248

The paper presents the uranium (U) concentration and distribution pattern in the Paleoproterozoic phosphorites of Lalitpur district of Uttar Pradesh. The study of thin sections, SEM and XRD reveal that apatite is the essential phosphate mineral while quartz and feldspars are the dominant gangue in the phosphorites of the investigated area. The collophane is observed to be mostly oolitic in form and microspherulitic in texture. The major element geochemistry indicated that the phosphorite samples are rich in P₂O₅, CaO, SiO₂ and Fe₂O₃ whereas depletion of MgO, MnO, K₂O and Al₂O₃ was observed. The CaO/P₂O₅ ratio ranges from 1.13 to 1.46 which is slightly lower than that of cations and anions substituted francolite (1.621) and close to that of carbonate-fluorapatite (1.318). The trace element geochemistry indicates that the phosphorites of Lalitpur have the significant range of U concentration (1.67 to 129.67 μg/g) which is more than that of Th (0.69 to 0.09 μg/g) among the analysed trace elements in the phosphorite samples of the area. The positive correlation of U with P₂O₅, CaO and U/P₂O₅ indicates a close association of U with phosphate minerals like collophane (apatite), whereas negative correlation of U with SiO₂ and Fe₂O₃ may be due to mutual replacement. The antipathetic relationship of U with Ni may be an indication of high oxidizing conditions, whereas sympathetic relationship of U with K₂O points towards higher alkaline conditions of the basin of deposition during phosphatization. The variable concentration of U and its relationship with significant major and trace elements in most of the phosphorite samples lead one to believe that the deposition of these phosphorites might have taken place in highly alkaline medium during fairly oxidizing to weakly reducing environmental conditions of geosynclinal basin.  相似文献   

Soil responses near Delhi ridge and adjacent regions in Greater Delhi during incidence of a local earthquake     

H. S. Mandal  P. K. Khan  A. K. Shukla 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):93-118

In this study, soil response was carried out for the Greater Delhi region. A folded Proterozoic formation was identified as Delhi ridge, passes through its central part along SSW–NNE direction, and appears to be a main geomorphic feature for the study area. The Delhi ridge is an exposed quartzite rock of about 10–100 m wide and ~25 km long with gentler dipping both toward east and west. We have considered the exposed part as an outcrop side near the ridge axis and the dipping area as rigid base away from the ridge axis for ground motion study during the occurrence of the 25 November 2007 earthquake with magnitude M _L 4.3 (Richter scale) that occurred at Delhi–Haryana State boundary. The degree of shaking was very strong and reported major cracks in the buildings near the epicenter area. We have studied the soil response parameters at the surface level, considering horizontally stratified soil layers above rigid base. The equivalent linear method was used for soil response analysis at 25 sites in Greater Delhi area. The peak amplification factors vary from 3.2 to 5.9 and peak resonance frequency varies from 1.2 to 5.3 Hz. The correlation among the peak amplification factor (A) and frequency (f) was empirically established as A = 0.36f + 3.60. Increasing peak amplification factor was found at sites with increasingly thicker alluvium deposit with lower frequency contains ground motion and vice versa. Seismic zoning map was also reconstructed for peak amplification factors and predominant periods for the study area for the mitigation purposes of earthquake damage. The average shear wave velocity up to 30 m soil depth is also obtained for site classification. The average velocity to 30 m [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] is a widely used parameter for classifying sites for predicting their potentiality to amplify seismic shaking. A lower value [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] thus yields a more conservative estimate of ground motion, which generally increases as $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ decreases. Present estimate of $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ varies from 315 to 419 m/s. In this study, we have identified two site classes C and D, as per National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The city planner or engineers can directly use these data for site-specific assessment during retrofitting of the existing structure, demolition of the old buildings and design a new structure to avoid major destruction of the buildings due to future earthquake.  相似文献   

Is area affected by flood or stagnant water independently associated with poorer health outcomes in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas?     

M. M. H. Khan  Oliver Gruebner  Alexander Krämer 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):549-565

This study investigated the association of flood/stagnant water (FSW) with various health outcomes among respondents living in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas. We also assessed the differences of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics between the FSW-affected and non-affected areas. Bangladesh as a whole and slums in the megacity of Dhaka in particular are severely affected by the FSW. Data were collected from 3,207 subjects (aged 10+ years) through baseline surveys conducted in March 2008 and 2009. Twelve big slums in Dhaka and three adjacent villages were selected as study areas. Face-to-face interviews using a multidimensional pre-tested questionnaire were conducted by the trained university graduates. We performed various types of analyses ranging from the simple frequency analysis to the multivariable-adjusted logistic regression modelling. Our empirical findings suggest that slums were more affected by the FSW as compared to the rural areas. People living in the FSW-affected areas were more vulnerable in terms of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics than non-affected people. Age was also significantly associated with various health outcomes. According to multivariable analyses controlled for various factors, the FSW-affected people reported significantly higher likelihoods of health symptoms (namely fever, cold/cough, weakness), communicable diseases (namely diarrhoea and gastric disease) and poor mental well-being as compared to the non-affected people. Only the burden of non-communicable diseases was lower in the FSW-affected areas than the non-affected areas. Our findings lead us to conclude that the FSW-affected area is an independent risk factor for various physical and mental health problems. Urban slums are more affected than rural areas by the FSW. Therefore, we underscore the necessities of well-designed and comprehensive public health interventions focusing on individual, community and higher levels of interventions to reduce the FSW-related health and other consequences among the people living in the FSW-affected areas and urban slums in the rapidly growing city of Dhaka, Bangladesh.  相似文献   

Gravitational clustering of galaxies in an expanding universe     

Naseer Iqbal  Farooq Ahmad  M. S. Khan 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2006,27(4):373-379

We inquire the phenomena of clustering of galaxies in an expanding universe from a theoretical point of view on the basis of thermodynamics and correlation functions. The partial differential equation is developed both for the point mass and extended mass structures of a two-point correlation function by using thermodynamic equations in combination with the equation of state taking gravitational interaction between particles into consideration. The unique solution physically satisfies a set of boundary conditions for correlated systems and provides a new insight into the gravitational clustering problem.  相似文献   

Solar transients disturbing the terrestrial magnetic environment at higher latitudes     

Parvaiz A. Khan  Sharad C. Tripathi  O. A. Troshichev  Malik A. Waheed  A. M. Aslam  A. K. Gwal 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,349(2):647-656

Geomagnetic field variations during five major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 23 have been investigated in the present study. The SEP events of 1 October 2001, 4 November 2001, 22 November 2001, 21 April 2002 and 14 May 2005 have been selected to study the geomagnetic field variations at two high-latitude stations, Thule (77.5^° N, 69.2^° W) and Resolute Bay (74.4^° E, 94.5^° W) of the northern polar cap. We have used the GOES proton flux in seven different energy channels (0.8–4 MeV, 4–9 MeV, 9–15 MeV, 15–40 MeV, 40–80 MeV, 80–165 MeV, 165–500 MeV). All the proton events were associated with geoeffective or Earth directed CMEs that caused intense geomagnetic storms in response to geospace. We have taken high-latitude indices, AE and PC, under consideration and found fairly good correlation of these with the ground magnetic field records during the five proton events. The departures of the H component during the events were calculated from the quietest day of the month for each event and have been represented as ΔH _THL and ΔH _RES for Thule and Resolute Bay, respectively. The correspondence of spectral index, inferred from event integrated spectra, with ground magnetic signatures ΔH _THL and ΔH _RES along with Dst and PC indices have been brought out. From the correlation analysis we found a very strong correlation to exist between the geomagnetic field variation (ΔHs) and high-latitude indices AE and PC. To find the association of geomagnetic storm intensity with proton flux characteristics we derived the correspondence between the spectral indices and geomagnetic field variations (ΔHs) along with the Dst and AE index. We found a strong correlation (0.88) to exist between the spectral indices and ΔHs and also between spectral indices and AE and PC.  相似文献